635 new Model3 VIN registrations today – total for Q4 stands at 66.647

With the 635 new Model3 VIN registrations at NHTSA today, the total registrations for Q4 are 66.647. This equals to a weekly production rate of 8.043. As stated in a previous post, this is above the real production rate, but it is an indication things are ramping up at Tesla.

Estimated weekly production rate of Tesla Model3s based on VIN registrations in Q4

Based on the reports so far, we will stick with our previous estimate of 71.500 produced in Q4, which translates into 5.500 per week.

Weekly production rate of 8.700 Model3 – based on VIN-registrations

Based on the registrations of VINs at NHTSA since the October 1st, the weekly production rate of Tesla Model3’s is around 8.700. It is clear from both statements from Tesla and the Bloomberg Model3 tracker, that this is too high, but with the forthcoming push towards 7.000 Model3’s, we should soon see new registrations.

We are over the halfmark of the quarter, so we will soon see a influx of projections on the quarterly production.  For now we are sticking with an estimate of 71.500 which translates into a weekly rate of 5.500.

Estimated weekly production of Model 3 based on VIN-registrations

Still a huge influx of Model3 VIN registrations

The influx new Model3 VIN registrations at NHTSA in October is still continueing. With the latest 4.500 today the total in October stands at 38.221 equivalent to 12.740 per week. This is almost 3 times the average of the realised production in Q3. But it could be an indication the ramp up progressing, and maybe we will see it hit 6.000 per week in late Q4.

With over 156.000 Model3 VIN registred so far, it should be realistic to hit a total delivered Model3 of 150.000 when 2018 closes.

Huge increase in registrered Model3 VINs – ramp up confirmed?

Almost three weeks into the 4th quarter the number of registred Tesla Model3’s is soaring. On the 18th of October the last batch was registred bringing the total to 33.617 VINs registred to NHTSA. Accourding to the Bloomberg Tracker the current production rate is around 4.200 per week, så the registrations should be enough for 8-9 weeks of production.

But it could also be a sign of the ramp up towards 6.000 per week taking shape. So if you take the current number of registrations in October, and take into account the number of weeks the maximum number of vehicles produced per week should be around 13.073. There is no way this is the actual number of produced when the ramp up in 2019 is with a target of 10.000, but by tracking the VINs the coming weeks, it should be possible to see if we are closer to the 6.000-mark which is the goal in Q4.