100.000th Tesla Model3 before closing of Q3

It might sound totally nuts, but when you read in to the comments of Elon Musk that Tesla is going to have an amazing quarter, and afterwards also the comment by Kimbal Musk on CNBCs Closing that the number of Teslas on the road will be shocking, it might not be so crazy.

Let’s look into a bit more. The number of produced Model3’s after Q2 was 41.030 according the Bloomberg Model3 Tracker. The tracker is currently (26th of September) at 91.451. That would suggest that there is a large gap. But as previously mentioned in the article Reliability of the Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker? the model has some flows. Actually Bloomberg has just released a comment, where they state they have to gaps in the VIN-ranges, which they have to adjust for. You can see the gaps in the figure below:

As you can see there are two large gaps, which the model anticipates not are going to be produces. But if they actually are produced and are some of the many Model3s which has been reported to be sitting in warehouses, Tesla might be able to announce a surprise after the 30th of September – “We have produced our 100.000th Tesla Model3.

Reliability of the Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker?

Is the Bloomberg Model 3 as realiable as previously

A lot of reporting on production numbers of the Tesla Model 3 is based on the Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker. Surely the model has been good, an understandably a lot of reporting in the news look on the progress forecasted by the Bloomberg model. But it is still reliable?

The question arises amid the model depends on to inputs:

  1. The number of registrered VINs at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
  2. VIN numbers reported directly to Bloomberg – either by the person owning a car or spotted on the web or in person.

Now it looks like latter is really thin data wise. No new data has been entered for almost 14 days, and the variation in the numbers are really huge. Look at the image below.

Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker – september 5th 2018

Hypothetically the production number could be a lot higher, if the data for the last 14 days supports it by being in a range above 95.000. Or they could even be lower if VIN numbers reported to Bloomberg is in the range below 80.000. So until the data is updated we shouldn’t conclude to much from the Bloomberg tracker