Based on the registrations of VINs at NHTSA since the October 1st, the weekly production rate of Tesla Model3’s is around 8.700. It is clear from both statements from Tesla and the Bloomberg Model3 tracker, that this is too high, but with the forthcoming push towards 7.000 Model3’s, we should soon see new registrations.
We are over the halfmark of the quarter, so we will soon see a influx of projections on the quarterly production. For now we are sticking with an estimate of 71.500 which translates into a weekly rate of 5.500.
The influx new Model3 VIN registrations at NHTSA in October is still continueing. With the latest 4.500 today the total in October stands at 38.221 equivalent to 12.740 per week. This is almost 3 times the average of the realised production in Q3. But it could be an indication the ramp up progressing, and maybe we will see it hit 6.000 per week in late Q4.
With over 156.000 Model3 VIN registred so far, it should be realistic to hit a total delivered Model3 of 150.000 when 2018 closes.
Almost three weeks into the 4th quarter the number of registred Tesla Model3’s is soaring. On the 18th of October the last batch was registred bringing the total to 33.617 VINs registred to NHTSA. Accourding to the Bloomberg Tracker the current production rate is around 4.200 per week, så the registrations should be enough for 8-9 weeks of production.
But it could also be a sign of the ramp up towards 6.000 per week taking shape. So if you take the current number of registrations in October, and take into account the number of weeks the maximum number of vehicles produced per week should be around 13.073. There is no way this is the actual number of produced when the ramp up in 2019 is with a target of 10.000, but by tracking the VINs the coming weeks, it should be possible to see if we are closer to the 6.000-mark which is the goal in Q4.
In the first week of October an influx of registrations of Tesla Model3 VINs at NHTSA. There has been 4 registrations so far in the first with at total of 17.863 Model3 VINs. So if the Bloomberg Model3 tracker is correct, this should be enough VINs for the rest of the month. If we see more registrations in the coming weeks it could be a good indication of an increase in production.
Nissan is soon going to upgrade the battery in the Nissan Leaf – and it should be quite a step up. It is reportedly going to have a capacity of 64 kWh, an increase of around 24 kWh. This translates directly into further range estimated to go from 241 km to 362 km.
When looking at the numbers it is getting closer to the spec’s of the Tesla Model3, and one of the main arguments against the Nissan Leaf is getting addressed – the lack of range. While nothing is official it looks like the market for midsized EVs is going to be crowded from 2019 and onwards – which is good for the consumers in terms of prize and development.
It might sound totally nuts, but when you read in to the comments of Elon Musk that Tesla is going to have an amazing quarter, and afterwards also the comment by Kimbal Musk on CNBCs Closing that the number of Teslas on the road will be shocking, it might not be so crazy.
Let’s look into a bit more. The number of produced Model3’s after Q2 was 41.030 according the Bloomberg Model3 Tracker. The tracker is currently (26th of September) at 91.451. That would suggest that there is a large gap. But as previously mentioned in the article Reliability of the Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker? the model has some flows. Actually Bloomberg has just released a comment, where they state they have to gaps in the VIN-ranges, which they have to adjust for. You can see the gaps in the figure below:
As you can see there are two large gaps, which the model anticipates not are going to be produces. But if they actually are produced and are some of the many Model3s which has been reported to be sitting in warehouses, Tesla might be able to announce a surprise after the 30th of September – “We have produced our 100.000th Tesla Model3.
A survey at TeslaMotorsClub is indicating the Q4 production of Tesla Model 3 to be above 60.000. 75% of the votes cast is for the production beeing above 60.000, with 55% being in the interval between 65.000-70.000. Q4 production is a bit harder than other quarters because of the holiday season, but 60.000 is just 10.000 above the numbers indicated by Elon Musk for Q3, so it should be achievable, not least amid the planned installation of the 3 new machines for the Gigafactory 1 by Grohmann.
Actually, it might be they are not pushing the production numbers right now amid the logistic hell of delivering all of the produced Model 3 so far.
Looks like Tesla is beginning to take advantage of the 2016 acqusition of Grohmann Engineering. Analysts from Worm Capital has been reporting of planned installation of machinery from Grohmann Engineering by end of Q3 or beginning of Q4 2018. With the installation of the machinery, the rate of batteryproduction happens should be by a factor 3, and by a third of the cost. This should enable Tesla to produce up to 8.000 Model3’s per week – or 400.000 on a annual basis.
Actually it is not one machine coming from the Grohmann subsidary, but 3 – one for each of the 3 zones in Gigafactory 1. So the production ramp will happen incrementally when installed in the 3 zones.
As reported, Reliability of the Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker?, last week, the reliability of the forecasted Model 3 production numbers by the Bloomberg forecasting model leaves a lot of open questions. Mostly because the input data wasn’t updated for quite som time.
Yesterday the input data was updated, and it shifted the number of forecasted Tesla Model 3 produced upwards. Before the update, the forecasted number of Model 3’s as of August 22nd was 77.820 and now the forecasted number as of August 22nd is 79.310, an increase of 1.490. Source: Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 tracker
Also the average production number for the last 3 weeks is now above 5.000, so it looks like the forecastmodel has been to pessimistic. Forecasted production numbers for the coming weeks are below 4.000, but it looks like it is because of no new VINs registered by Tesla, so if this picks up it indicates we can see a really good Q3 for the Model 3 production number wise – maybe it will hit 100.000 produced!